2008 NBA Playoffs

Boston crushes LA, 131-92, and wins the 2008 NBA Championship.

The Lakers started out okay, but it was the Celtics who had the intensity. When Los Angeles turned to its bench players for a spark, none was found. The late 1st quarter tailspin was a death spiral by the mid-2nd quarter. Every Laker who usually gets minutes had an opportunity to right things, but none did.

Kobe Bryant was on-court the entire first half. He started hot, giving the Lakers their early lead with 3-point makes, but could not find his mid-range game or easy baskets. He looked, monopolizing the ball and probing the Celtics D without success when he had it. Passes, when he made them, were into tight spaces, Hail Mary assist attempts instead of hitting the open man to re-balance the court.

Laker teammates responded as expected, playing without creativity or energy, as Kobe looked them off. As a group, when one of the non-Kobes did have the ball, he would make the same passes in offensive sets time after time, as if scripted by the Celtics’ gameplan. The Lakers’ gameplan, more likely Kobe’s gameplan, seemed geared toward degree of difficulty instead of easy, open moves, passes, and shots.

It was the complete opposite for the Celtics-good benchplay, solid gameplan, team-wide execution. And so a massacre, along with a title.

Lakers win Game 5 at home, 103-98. The series goes back to Boston for Game 6 with the Celtics ahead, 3-2.

The Second-by-Second +/- graph highlights what a weird 2nd quarter took place. Garnett sits for practically all of it, yet the Celtics’ subs vastly outplay the Lakers’ subs, bringing Boston back in the game. Tony Allen, a tough and athletic non-shooter, appears to be a good backcourt complement to Sam Cassell. Expect them to get their minutes together again in Game 6.

And does Laker coach Phil Jackson trust Jordan Farmar too much? Or is Farmar just more reliable than the two shaky Euros, Vujacic and Radmanovic. Luke Walton had solid minutes off the bench in Game 5, but again proved unable to keep up defensively and made himself a non-option by acquiring fouls in bunches. Maybe Walton can take advantage of the extra rest he’s gotten, along with the brutal travel the Celtics have endured, and have a big Game 6. Regardless, between the four, if Jackson can have one finish the game playing well, he has to feel good about his team’s chances, especially now that Odom and Gasol have both gained familiarity with their opponent, and seen the Celtics’ size advantage go away.

Doc Rivers faces a similar situation with his shaky point guard situation. Expect him to find out who among Rajon Rondo, Eddie House, and Sam Cassell has their A-game, and to ride that guy through the second half. The strategy worked well in Game 5 with Sam Cassell’s positive play. Forget about each team’s Big 3, one of these shaky guys has the chance to come through big. If it’s Cassell, he’s made history. If it’s one of the others, they’ll have made themselves millions in future salary. Either way, it’s a good night’s work on basketball’s biggest stage.

Boston comes back to win Game 4 in Los Angeles, and leads the series, 3-1.

The Lakers blew the game, but looking at the Second-by-Second +/- graph don’t appear to have blown the series. Phil Jackson was bedevilled by the Celtics’ Big 3/Posey/House lineup. His predetermined answer of ball pressure from Farmar, Vujacic, and Kobe either didn’t work or wasn’t applied. Meantime, Derek Fisher stayed on the bench despite positive minutes in the game’s first half. Luke Walton also sat despite positive minutes last game. The Zen Master opted to give his younger players big game experience, and it cost his team. Given Jackson’s experience he must have some rationale in betting on future championship performance even though it cost this one championship series game.

The Celtics must be aware that Rajon Rondo and PJ Brown, keys to the Celtics first two wins, have been officially neutralized by the Lakers. With Kendrick Perkins’ injury, there is no longer an advantage along the frontline. Fisher, Walton, and Radmanovic seem more capable than Farmar and Vujacic of making plays with and for the non-Kobes on their team. It makes for simple gamplan fixes for the Lakers, and not many answers for it by the Celtics.

But the Celtics’ Big 3 is proving to be a resilient and creative core. Concerns about who’s Boston’s go-to guy to win games now appear silly. The Lakers’ capacity for end-of-game creative playmaking has been stifled by the Boston defense stacked to stop Kobe, the Plan A, B, and C for LA. Meantime, the Celtics’ multiple weapons made their late-Game 4 points easy in comparison.

Even though this game is in LA, and the next two are in Boston, this might be the Celtics best, easiest chance. The rapid succession of travel and games between now and a potential Game 7 on Thursday stands to wear down Boston’s Big 3. If the Lakers explode like they did in the first half of Game 4, the Celtics might do well to take a page from the Spurs and surrender early, save on the wear and tear, and retreat to New England with a 3-2 lead. If that happens, Game 6 and 7 stand to be wars befitting the first Celtics-Lakers NBA Finals in over 20 years.

Lakers beat the Celtics 87-81 to win Game 3 at home. Boston leads the series, 2-1. Looking at the Second-by-Second +/- graph, it really does look like Vujacic bailed out the Lakers with his strong performance. Walton and Farmar also contributed positive minutes off the bench for Los Angeles, something that was necessary to offset a good game by Eddie House who effectively spelled a hurt Rajon Rondo.

PJ Brown had been huge off the bench for the Celtics in the first two games, but having him on the court at the end of Game 3 didn’t work out so well. Kobe Bryant figured out that the path to the rim (or the open jumper) happens to be the neighborhood PJ Brown hangs out in. It seemed like Kobe could count on getting the space he needed to make plays by exploding past or through Brown.

The story was different with Kendrick Perkins, who was much more effective than Brown when he was on court at the same time as Bryant, especially during the Celtics 3rd quarter run to the lead. Perkins might need to get more playing time in Game 4. If he comes through next game and helps to keep the Lakers’ Odom and Gasol off their games, the Celtics might pull off a big road win.

Boston wins Game 2 at home, 108-102, and leads the Series 2-0. With the second-by-second +/- graph, big swings in the score really highlight the matchups that work and don’t work.

For the second consecutive game, one thing that worked for the Celtics was PJ Brown. He stabilized Doc Rivers substition pattern in to and out of the Big Three plus Rondo. Leon Powe brought the firepower off the bench for Boston, but Brown set the stage, making enough shots to give Powe room to operate down low. Given Brown’s advanced age, more minutes might not yield much additional benefit. Call it an non-indicator of a Rivers-Jackson coaching mismatch, though credit here might better go to Boston’s front office for bringing Brown to the team.

Rajon Rondo, however, showed signs of cracking when the Lakers gained confidence in their big end-of-game comeback. Derek Fisher seemed to have him well in hand, though it may have been the decision by Doc Rivers to matchup with the Lakers’ small ball lineup. The Celtics with Rondo, Pierce, Allen, and Posey seem to have trouble sharing the ball and balancing the floor against the Lakers with Bryant, Fisher, Vujacic, and Radmanovic. Phil Jackson should get credit here for working to find a five that could highlight advantages for his team. It will be interesting to see if Jackson can use Odom, Walton, and Farmar in similar schemes with similar success. Walton, however, looks like he might not be getting much run, having been lit up by Powe on D and not doing any positive playmaking on O.

Game 3 on Tue means quick turnaround and short rest, a plus for the homecoming Lakers, especially if Rondo, Pierce, and Brown tire and any of them experience a major drop in productivity.

Celtics beat the Lakers 98-88 to win Game 1 at home. Three storylines surface in the second-by-second +/- data.

The coaching mismatch between Doc Rivers and Phil Jackson didn’t materialize. It looks like Doc effectively managed Pierce’s minutes after the injury to minimize any diminished team performance. Rivers gave extended minutes to Brown and Posey, and spot minutes to Cassell and Powe in the late-3rd and early-4th quarters. Of note, Posey turned around a tough opening half with strong play in this stretch. And Brown was solid during his minutes against all of the Laker bigs-Gasol, Odom, and Turiaf.

While the Celtics’ big man advantage was apparent going into the game, the graph shows a glimmer of some advantage in the Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fisher matchup. Rondo’s speed and overall slipperiness might make him capable of exploiting Fisher’s physical style, even though it wore Tony Parker from the Spurs down in the Western Conference Finals.

If Rondo is making good decision in end of game situations it looks like the Celtics and not the Lakers might have a real creativity advantage in playmaking during a close grind-it-out, close-it-out 4th quarter. The Lakers sank hard with Kobe Bryant failing to make positive plays for himself and for his teammates when Boston dug in to shut him down at the end of Game 1. If it happens to Kobe and the Lakers don’t figure out, it might be something Los Angeles struggles with throughout.

Lakers beat the Spurs 100-92 in LA to win the Conference Finals. The Spurs had their way until just two and a half minutes were left in the second quarter, when Los Angeles exploded for an 11-2 run, leaving San Antonio with just a 6 point lead. The trigger for the momentum swing was when Spurs’ coach Popovich took Tony Parker out of the game, and Lakers’ coach Phil Jackson successfully applied pressure and forced turnovers. Parker could have used the rest, because when he returned to the game the Lakers continued their onslaught to close the half. The Spurs managed to hold on through the third quarter, only to yield in the fourth.

The Lakers win at San Antonio, 93-91, and take the lead in the series, 3-1. Manu Ginobli shouldered lots of criticism for not doing his part to help the Spurs win, but the team performed noticeably better when he was on the court. Of the Spurs’ Big 3, Tony Parker had the least successful performance in terms of through-game +/-. It looks like the Lakers were prepared to attack him at the beginning of the game while Parker may have been attempting to repeat the success he had in Game 3, holding back effort and energy for the second half.

The Spurs also struggled during Bruce Bowen’s minutes. For some reason the Lakers played a tighter team game when Bowen and Kobe would square off, often using more and better passes to get easier shots. With Bowen out of the game, the Lakers more often went one-on-one, or ran down their shot clock as a result of weak execution. But at no time did the Spurs do worse than with Michael Finley on the court. And with the ascent of Brent Barry, we may seen the Finley finale.

Spurs coach Popovich can’t be enjoying his lack of options at the four-spot. The team suffered with Oberto on the court, yet he received the majority of game minutes instead of Robert Horry. Maybe more importantly, he appears to have contributed significantly to Lamar Odom’s surging confidence and positive play.

And where was Kurt Thomas? Pop may have held him back to spell Tim Duncan, but then didn’t see any opportunities materialize because the Lakers never fell behind in the score. Give Pop credit for throttling the Lakers’ Luke Walton though. If he’s not effectively playmaking with Kobe Bryant resting, the Spurs gain crucial ground. Fortunately for the Lakers, Vlad Radminovic is in a good stretch of play, though that could change.

It’s hard to see where Popovich can create some leverage for his team to exploit and create some sort of advantage. It’ll be interesting to see what he and the Spurs try to do to stave off elimination.

Spurs beat the Lakers 103-84 at home, and trail 2-1 in the series. The Spurs received positive contributions from just about their entire lineup. Only when Michael Finley was playing did San Antonio fail to make big gains, indicative of the dropoff between Finley’s game and Ginobli on his A-game, and the lack of success of a Duncan plus no other bigs experimental lineup.

The Lakers’ Lamar Odom was on court for both of the Spurs’ big pushes, helping the other team with missed shots and free throws. The first of those big pushes coincided with Ginobli exploding on the Lakers’ second unit, which failed to play cohesively and started a downward spiral that continued when LA’s starters returned midway through the second quarter. The second San Antonio push was marked by Tony Parker’s solid second half play and some out of the blue points from Brent Barry.

Phil Jackson should have lots of options for next game adjustments with the Lakers. And with the arrival of Barry plus the decent play out of his non-Duncan bigs, Gregg Popovich might also have options. Looks like a super-interesting Game 4.

Lakers beat Spurs 101-71 at home, and lead series 2-0. It appears to have been a total team-wide collapse for the Spurs. Only Oberto stands out for especially unproductive minutes in the time leading up to when the gap in the score really widened. Though it’s worth noting that Tony Parker continues to non-perform in the 2nd half.

But similar events occurred against the Hornets for the Spurs last series. One-way specialists like Bowen and Oberto playing against top-line scorers proved to be the wrong short term strategy, as Chris Paul and David West executed at a high level. Hard to say if the same adjustment the Spurs made last series, moving Bowen off the lead playmaker to zero out a secondary scorer, can work against the Lakers’ Triangle Offense, especially since Kobe is playing like an absolute assassin. There’s going to be more Lakers’ offense than Spurs’ D, no matter what.

Where can the Spurs turn for more offense? Tim Duncan appears to exhaust his creative offense capability after only a couple passes to him in the post. Ginobli started to find his way to the rim, but mostly during unstructed secondary breaks, and not as much in organized half court sets. The Lakers have been making the Spurs and Tony Parker pay for going all the way to the basket and being stopped at the rim. It seems to take only a couple of those instances, and Parker’s game vanishes.

If the Lakers continue to get solid minutes from the Fisher/Farmar and the Vujacic/Radmanovic/Walton combos, the talent gap between the two teams will prove insurmountable. It will be fun to see if the Spurs turn to physical play to close the gap, prompting Phil Jackson to see if he has, in Mbenga, an enforcer capable of enforcing.